Presentation on theme: "T4.1 Chapter Outline Chapter 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth Chapter Organization 4.1What is Financial Planning? 4.2Financial Planning Models:"— Presentation transcript:
1 T4.1 Chapter Outline Chapter 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth Chapter Organization 4.1What is Financial Planning? 4.2Financial Planning Models: A First Look 4.3The Percentage of Sales Approach 4.4External Financing and Growth 4.5Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models 4.6Summary and Conclusions Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 CLICK MOUSE OR HIT SPACEBAR TO ADVANCE
2 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.2 Financial Planning Model Ingredients Sales Forecast Drives the model Pro Forma Statements The output summarizing different projections Asset Requirements Investment needed to support sales growth Financial Requirements Debt and dividend policies The “Plug” Designated source(s) of external financing Economic Assumptions State of the economy, interest rates, inflation
3 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.3 Example: A Simple Financial Planning Model Recent Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$100Assets$50Debt$20 Costs90Equity30 Net Income$ 10Total$50Total$50 Assume that: 1.sales are projected to rise by 25% 2.the debt/equity ratio stays at 2/3 3.costs and assets grow at the same rate as sales
4 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.3 Example: A Simple Financial Planning Model (concluded) Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$______Assets$______Debt______ Costs____________Equity______ Net $ ______Total$______Total$______
5 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.3 Example: A Simple Financial Planning Model (concluded) Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$ 125 Assets$ 62.5Debt$ 25 Costs112.5 ______ Equity 37.5 Net $ 12.5 Total$ 62.5Total$ 62.5 What’s the plug? Notice that projected net income is $12.50, but equity only increases by $7.50. The difference, $5.00 paid out in cash dividends, is the plug.
6 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Income Statement (projected growth = 30%) Original Pro forma Sales$2000$_____(+30%) Costs17002210(= 85% of sales) EBT300_____ Taxes (34%)102132.6 Net income198257.4 Dividends6685.8(= 1/3 of net) Add. to ret. Earnings________(= 2/3 of net) T4.4 The Percentage of Sales Approach
7 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Income Statement (projected growth = 30%) Original Pro forma Sales$2000$2600(+30%) Costs17002210(= 85% of sales) EBT300390 Taxes (34%)102132.6 Net income198257.4 Dividends6685.8(= 1/3 of net) Add. to ret. Earnings132171.6(= 2/3 of net) T4.4 The Percentage of Sales Approach
8 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.4 The Percentage of Sales Approach (concluded) Preliminary Balance Sheet Orig.% of salesOrig.% of sales Cash$100___%A/P$60___% A/R1206%N/P140 n/a Inv1407% Total200 n/a Total$360__%LTD$200n/a NFA64032%C/S10n/a R/E590n/a $600n/a Total$100050%Total$1000n/a
9 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.4 The Percentage of Sales Approach (concluded) Preliminary Balance Sheet Orig.% of salesOrig.% of sales Cash$1005%A/P$603% A/R1206%N/P140 n/a Inv1407% Total200 n/a Total$36018%LTD$200n/a NFA64032%C/S10n/a R/E590n/a $600n/a Total$100050%Total$1000n/a Note that the ratio of total assets to sales is $1000/$2000 = 0.50. This is the capital intensity ratio. It equals 1/(total asset turnover).
10 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 The Percentage of Sales Approach, Continued Proj. (+/-) Proj. (+/-) Cash$____$____A/P$____$____ A/R________N/P________ Inv18242 Total$____$____ Total$____$108LTD200 NFA832192C/S10 R/E761.6____ $771.6$____ Total$____$____Total$1189.6$____ Financing needs are $300, but internally generated sources are only $189.60. The difference is external financing needed: EFN = $300 - 189.60 = $________ T4.5 Pro Forma Statements
11 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 The Percentage of Sales Approach, Continued Proj. (+/-) Proj. (+/-) Cash$130$ 30A/P$ 78$ 18 A/R15636N/P1400 Inv18242 Total$ 218$ 18 Total$468$108LTD2000 NFA832192C/S100 R/E761.6171.6 $771.6$171.6 Total$1300$300Total$1189.6$189.6 Financing needs are $300, but internally generated sources are only $189.60. The difference is external financing needed: EFN = $300 - 189.60 = $110.40 T4.5 Pro Forma Statements
12 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.5 Pro Forma Statements (concluded) One possible financing strategy: 1.Borrow short-term first 2.If needed, borrow long-term next 3.Sell equity as a last resort Constraints: 1.Current ratio must not fall below 2.0. 2.Total debt ratio must not rise above 0.40.
13 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.6 The Percentage of Sales Approach: General Formulas Given a sales forecast and an estimated profit margin, what addition to retained earnings can be expected? Let: S = previous period’s sales g = projected increase in sales PM = profit margin b = earnings retention (“plowback”) ratio The expected addition to retained earnings is: S(1 + g) PM b This represents the level of internal financing the firm is expected to generate over the coming period.
14 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.6 The Percentage of Sales Approach: General Formulas (concluded) What level of asset investment is needed to support a given level of sales growth? For simplicity, assume we are at full capacity. Then the indicated increase in assets required equals A g where A = ending total assets from the previous period. If the required increase in assets exceeds the internal funding available (i.e., the increase in retained earnings), then the difference is the External Financing Needed (EFN).
15 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.7 The Percentage of Sales Approach: A Financing Plan Given the following information, determine maximum allowable borrowing for the firm: 1. $468/CL = 2.0 implies maximum CL = $____ Maximum short-term borrowing = $234 - $____ = $____ 2..40 $1300 = $____ = maximum debt $520 - ____ = $____ = maximum long-term debt Maximum long-term borrowing = $286 - ____ = $____ 3. Total new borrowings = $16 + 86 = $____ Shortage = $____ - 102 = $____ A possible plan: New short-term debt = $8.0 New long-term debt = 43.0 New equity = 59.4 $110.4
16 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.7 The Percentage of Sales Approach: A Financing Plan Given the following information, determine maximum allowable borrowing for the firm: 1. $468/CL = 2.0 implies maximum CL = $234 Maximum short-term borrowing = $234 - $218 = $16 2..40 $1300 = $520 = maximum debt $520 - 234 = $286 = maximum long-term debt Maximum long-term borrowing = $286 - 200 = $286 3. Total new borrowings = $16 + 86 = $102 Shortage = $110.4 - 102 = $8.4 A possible plan: New short-term debt = $8.0 New long-term debt = 43.0 New equity = 59.4 $110.4
17 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Completed Pro Forma Balance Sheet Proj. (+/-) Proj. (+/-) Cash$130$ 30A/P$ 78$ 18 A/R15636N/P1488 Inv18242 Total$226$ 26 Total$468$108LTD24343 NFA832192C/S69.459.4 R/E761.6171.6 $831$231 Total$1300$300Total$1300$300 T4.7 The Percentage of Sales Approach: A Financing Plan (concluded)
18 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.8 The Percentage of Sales Approach: What About Capacity? So far, 100% capacity has been assumed. Suppose that, instead, current capacity use is 80%. 1.At 80% capacity: $2000 =.80 full capacity sales $2000/.80 = $_______ = full capacity sales 2.At full capacity, fixed assets to sales will be: $640/$_______ = 25.60% 3.So, NFA will need to be just: 25.60% $2600 = $_______, not $832 $832 - $665.60 = $_______ less than originally projected 4.In this case, original EFN is substantially overstated: New EFN = $110.40 - $166.40 = -$_______. So, the impact of different capacity assumptions is ?
19 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.8 The Percentage of Sales Approach: What About Capacity? So far, 100% capacity has been assumed. Suppose that, instead, current capacity use is 80%. 1.At 80% capacity: $2000 =.80 full capacity sales $2000/.80 = $2500 = full capacity sales 2.At full capacity, fixed assets to sales will be: $640/$2500 = 25.60% 3.So, NFA will need to be just: 25.60% $2600 = $665.60, not $832 $832 - $665.60 = $166.40 less than originally projected 4.In this case, original EFN is substantially overstated: New EFN = $110.40 - $166.40 = –$56 (i.e., a surplus!) So, the impact of different capacity assumptions is ?
20 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Key issue: What is the relationship between sales growth and financing needs? Recent Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$100Assets$50Debt$20 Costs90Equity30 Net$ 10Total$50Total$50 T4.9 Growth and External Financing
21 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Assume that: 1.costs and assets grow at the same rate as sales 2.60% of net income is paid out in dividends 3.no external financing is available (debt or equity) Q.What is the maximum growth rate achievable? A.The maximum growth rate is given by ROA b Internal growth rate (IGR) = 1 - (ROA b) ROA = $10/___ = ___% b = 1 -.___ =.___ IGR = (20%.40)/[1 - (20%.40)] =.08/.92 = 8.7% (= 8.695656…%) T4.9 Growth and External Financing (concluded)
22 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Assume that: 1.costs and assets grow at the same rate as sales 2.60% of net income is paid out in dividends 3.no external financing is available (debt or equity) Q.What is the maximum growth rate achievable? A.The maximum growth rate is given by ROA b Internal growth rate (IGR) = 1 - (ROA b) ROA = $10/50 = 20% b = 1 -.60 =.40 IGR = (20%.40)/[1 - (20%.40)] =.08/.92 = 8.7% (= 8.695656…%) T4.9 Growth and External Financing (concluded)
23 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.10 Growth and Financing Needed for the Hoffman Company (Figure 4.1)
24 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.11 The Internal Growth Rate Assume sales do grow at 8.7 percent. How are the financial statements affected? Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$108.70Assets$54.35Debt$20.00 Costs97.83Equity_____ Net$10.87Total$54.35Total$_____ Dividends$6.52 Add to R/E_____
25 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.11 The Internal Growth Rate Assume sales do grow at 8.7 percent. How are the financial statements affected? Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$108.70Assets$54.35Debt$20.00 Costs97.83Equity 34.35 Net$10.87Total$54.35Total$54.35 Dividends$6.52 Add to R/E4.35
26 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Now assume: 1.no external equity financing is available 2.the current debt/equity ratio is optimal Q.What is the maximum growth rate achievable now? A.The maximum growth rate is given by ROE b Sustainable growth rate (SGR) = 1 - (ROE b) ROE = $___ /___ = 1/3(= 33.333…%) b= 1.00 -.60 =.40 SGR = (1/3.40)/[1 - (1/3.40)] = 15.385% (=15.38462…%) T4.11 Internal Growth Rate (concluded)
27 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Now assume: 1.no external equity financing is available 2.the current debt/equity ratio is optimal Q.What is the maximum growth rate achievable now? A.The maximum growth rate is given by ROE b Sustainable growth rate (SGR) = 1 - (ROE b) ROE = $10 / 30 = 1/3(= 33.333…%) b= 1.00 -.60 =.40 SGR = (1/3.40)/[1 - (1/3.40)] = 15.385% (=15.38462…%) T4.11 Internal Growth Rate (concluded)
28 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Assume sales do grow at 15.385 percent: Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$115.38Assets$57.69Debt$_____ Costs103.85Equity_____ Net$11.53Total$57.69Total$_____ Dividends$6.92EFN$_____ Add to R/E_____ If we borrow the $3.08, the debt/equity ratio will be: $ _____/ _____=_____ T4.12 The Sustainable Growth Rate
29 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 Assume sales do grow at 15.385 percent: Pro Forma Financial Statements Income statement Balance sheet Sales$115.38Assets$57.69Debt$ 20 Costs103.85Equity34.61 Net$11.53Total$57.69Total$54.61 Dividends$6.92EFN$3.08 Add to R/E4.61 If we borrow the $3.08, the debt/equity ratio will be: $ 23.08 / 34.61 = 2/3 Is this what you expected? T4.12 The Sustainable Growth Rate
30 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.12 The Sustainable Growth Rate (concluded) The rate of sustainable growth depends on four factors: 1.Profitability (profit margin) 2.Dividend Policy (dividend payout) 3.Financial policy (debt-equity ratio) 4.___________________________
31 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.12 The Sustainable Growth Rate (concluded) The rate of sustainable growth depends on four factors: 1.Profitability (profit margin) 2.Dividend Policy (dividend payout) 3.Financial policy (debt-equity ratio) 4.Asset utilization (total asset turnover) Do you see any relationship between the SGR and the Du Pont identity?
32 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.13 Summary of Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates I. Internal Growth Rate IGR = (ROA b)/[1 - (ROA b)] where:ROA = return on assets = Net income/assets b = earnings retention or “plowback” ratio The IGR is the maximum growth rate that can be achieved with no external financing of any kind. II. Sustainable Growth Rate SGR = (ROE b)/[1 - (ROE b)] where: ROE = return on equity = Net income/equity b = earnings retention or “plowback” ratio The SGR is the maximum growth rate that can be achieved with no external equity financing while maintaining a constant debt/equity ratio.
33 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.14 Questions the Financial Planner Should Consider Mark Twain once said “forecasting is very difficult, particularly if it concerns the future”. The process of financial planning involves the use of mathematical models which provide the illusion of great accuracy. In assessing a financial forecast, the planner should ask the following questions: Are the results generated by the model reasonable? Have I considered all possible outcomes? How reasonable were the economic assumptions which were used to generate the forecast? Which assumptions have the greatest impact on the outcome? Which variables are of the greatest importance in determining the outcome? Have I forgotten anything important? The final question may be the most crucial. It is worthwhile to remember that, if you think your forecasting model is too good to be true, you’re undoubtedly right.
34 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.15 Chapter 4 Quick Quiz 1. How does one compute the external financing needed (EFN)? Why is this information important to a financial planner? 2. What is the internal growth rate (IGR)? 3. What is the sustainable growth rate (SGR)? 4. What kinds of questions might one ask in evaluating a financial plan?
35 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.15 Chapter 4 Quick Quiz 1. How does one compute the external financing needed (EFN)? Why is this information important to a financial planner? EFN = increase in assets required - increase in internal financing. 2. What is the internal growth rate (IGR)? IGR = maximum growth rate achievable without external financing. 3. What is the sustainable growth rate (SGR)? SGR = maximum growth rate achievable without external financing and while maintaining a constant debt-equity ratio. 4. What kinds of questions might one ask in evaluating a financial plan? Are the results reasonable? Which assumptions are crucial? What have I forgotten?
36 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.16 Solution to Problem 4.8 What is Ping, Li, Yi, & Co.’s maximum sales increase if no new equity is issued? Assume: Assets and costs are proportional to sales, 50% dividend payout ratio, and constant debt-equity ratio. Sales$23,000 - Costs15,200 Taxable Income $ 7,800 - Taxes2,652 Net Income$5,148 Net W. Cap.$10,500L. T. Debt$30,000 Fixed Assets50,000Equity30,500 $60,500$60,500
37 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.16 Solution to Problem 4.8 (concluded) SGR=(ROE b) / [1 - (ROE b)] ROE=Net income / Equity =$5,148 / $30,500 =.168787 b=Retention ratio =1 - Dividends/Net income =1 -.50 =.50 SGR=(.168787.50) / [1 - (.168788.50)] =.0922 Maximum Increase = Sales SGR = $23,000.0922 = $2,120.60
38 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.17 Solution to Problem 4.14 Given the following information, compute the sustainable growth rate (SGR) and the ROE for Kramer’s Kickboxing. a.Profit Margin=.085 b.Capital Intensity=.60 c.Debt-Equity=.50 d.Net Income=$10,000 e.Dividends=$ 4,000 ROE = (Profit Margin)(Asset Turnover)(Equity Multiplier) Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales = $10,000/Sales =.085 Sales = $10,000/.085 = $117,647 Asset Turnover = Sales / Assets = 1/Capital Intensity = 1 /.60 = 1.667 Equity Multiplier = Assets / Equity = $70,588/47,059 = 1.5 Assets = Sales/Asset Turnover = $117,647/1.667 = $70,588 Equity = 2/3 (Assets) = 2/3 ($70,588) = $47,059
39 Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000 T4.17 Solution to Problem 4.14 (concluded) ROE = (.085)(1.667)(1.5) =.2125 = 21.25% SGR= (ROE b) / [1 - (ROE b)] b =1 - (Dividends / Net Income) =1 - $4,000 / $10,000 = 1 -.40 =.60 SGR= (.2125 .60) / [1 - (.2125 .60)] =.1461 = 14.61%
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